The 25th ranked Boise State Broncos take on Washington State for the 7th time in program history on Saturday. Wazzu is the closest FBS program to the Broncos, at 220 miles apart, and will become an annual matchup in 2026 when the Broncos join the PAC-12. Washington State is 4-0 and looking to stay unbeaten and make a push for an at-large playoff bid. While the Broncos look to go 3-1 and keep themselves in the polls and at the front of the playoff picture.
Info:
#25 Boise State (2-1) vs Washington State (4-0)
Kickoff: 8:00 PM MT on FS1
Odds: Boise State -7.5 O/U 65.5
What to expect from Washington State
The Cougars come into this game with a very similar profile to the Broncos. Washington State has an electric offense, spearheaded by star quarterback John Mateer, with a suspect defense. Per SP+, the Broncos have the 18th ranked offense in college football and the 76th ranked defense in college football. Per SP+, the Cougars have the 19th ranked offense and the 83rd ranked defense. Last time out, the Cougars took down San Jose State 54-52 in overtime in what was the most entertaining game of this season. You may remember Boise State's opening game, a 56-45 win over Georgia Southern.
Both teams have prolific offenses that score at will and defenses that have struggled to get stops. Expect Mateer and the Cougars offense to test Boise's defense, particularly Boise's secondary which faces a tough test against a talent trio of Wazzu wide receivers.
There's a good chance this one will come down to which defense can generate big plays to kill drives. I don't expect either defense to consistently bow up and get stops, so whoever can force turnovers or generate sacks will have the edge.
What is the Snake River Rivalry?
The short answer, it is the newfound rivalry between Boise State and Washington State now that the two will share a conference together.
The long answer, a term I completely made up this offseason and decided to run with. Since Washington State is the closest FBS program to Boise State, and the two have traded blows in men's basketball the past two seasons, it felt right to christen the game with a title. Boise State is in a weird place with our rivalry games. Idaho has been a dead rivalry for well over a decade now. Nevada is our most heated rivalry, but will be going away with Boise State's move to the PAC-12 (unless UNR has joined since the writing of this piece, Stay tuned), and BYU left for the Big 12 in 2023. That just leaves the Battle for the Milk Can against Fresno State. I figured all rivalries have to start somewhere, so lets just name the annual game we will be playing with Washington State. Something involving the Snake River made sense. The Boise River, which runs through Boise State's campus, is a tributary of the Snake River. The Snake River is also the nearest body of water to Washington State's campus, about 20 miles away. It's a logical fit and it sounds good. After workshopping the original name back in July, I ran a highly sophisticated system of determining the best name for the game (I ran a Twitter poll),
Choose:
— Nathan Carroll (@Nathan_26_) September 24, 2024
And so, the Snake River Rivalry is born. Washington State seems to be leaning into the idea, including the Boise River in their game preview post this week.
— Washington State Football (@WSUCougarFB) September 24, 2024Week 05: Boise State ?
Gameweek poster, presented by @AlaskaAir
? Boise State
? Saturday, Sept. 28
? Boise, ID
?️ Albertsons Stadium
⏰ 8PM MT, 7PM PT
? @FS1 pic.twitter.com/LvE9Nf0arz
Will it catch on? Who knows, but Boise State and Washington State are likely going to be in the same boat of conference realignment for the next few decades and creating a bond now will make for more entertaining games in the future.
Jake Ripp being used in a new role
I've talked often this season about Boise's need to find a secondary edge rusher opposite Ahmed Hassanein. I thought the solution would be sliding Andrew Simpson to the edge on passing downs and it turns out the coaching staff had a similar idea for a different player.
Jake Ripp is listed on the roster as a linebacker, but on 41 snaps so far this season, he's only been at linebacker depth for 9 of them. The other 32 snaps he lined up on the edge in a STUD (stand up defensive end) alignment. Of those 41 snaps, 29 were passers. Ripp rushed the passer on 21 of those 29 dropbacks, and he's having a lot of success doing it. Ripp has 6 pressures, good for a 23.7% pressure rate (including plays not included as "snaps" because of penalty). That 23.7% pressure rate is highest on the team of anyone with at least 2 pressures. He also has a win rate of 26.3%, second on the team of anyone with 2 pressures (behind Max Stege).
Coming into the year, I thought that Ripp would be primarily an off ball linebacker and split reps with Marco Notarainni, but the staff has decided to use him as a situational pass rusher and its working out really well. Look for Ripp's role to continue to expand and bolster a pass rusher that desperately needs contributors.
Keys to a Bronco Victory
Make John Mateer one dimensional: Wazzu QB John Mateer finished last Friday's game against San Jose State with 390 yards passing, 111 yards rushing and 5 touchdowns. The Broncos can't let Mateer do that Saturday and win. Mateer is one of the most electric QBs in college football, but he does have some limitations as a passer. Against Texas Tech and Washington, Mateer was 26/53 for 360 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT. Against San Jose State and Portland State he was 37/63 for 742 yards, 9 TD and 2 INT. Mateer is going to get his on the ground, he's too talented of a runner to shut him down. If the Broncos can keep him from being an efficient passer as well, I think they have a good chance.
Force Mateer into turnovers: I try not to include turnover talk in this column, because winning the turnover battle is almost predictive on who will win the game. In three games against FBS competition, Mateer has thrown four interceptions. Mateer is going to make some incredible plays, that's inevitable, but Boise will need to force Mateer into turning the ball over to offset some of the explosiveness he provides.
Find Cam Camper: We all know Boise State's been led by Ashton Jeanty in this ground game, and I don't expect Washington State to be the one to shut down Jeanty, but Wazzu's secondary has some issues. Washington State's defense has a 38.8% success rate on opponent dropbacks this season, 87th in College Football. San Jose State used this to their advantage throwing for 375 yards. San Jose specifically targeted Washington State CB Kapena Gushiken 20 times last week. Meanwhile, Camper has emerged as Boise State's best wide receiver. Camper has 221 yards and 3 touchdowns so far this season and I expect Dirk Koetter to find ways to get Camper on Gushiken and continue to get him the ball on Saturday.
Bronco Breakout candidates
Last week I predicted Cameron Bates and Max Stege to be two breakout candidates for the Broncos. Bates had his first collegiate touchdown and Stege got his first collegiate sack. Hopefully these two below have similar breakout games this week.
Andrew Simpson has had a quiet year for the Broncos. He's been suspect in coverage and has missed more tackles than either of the past two seasons. Chinander used Simpson as the Spy last week against Portland State and I expect his job this week will once again be to slow down an athletic QB. I think Simpson's up to the task and has a monster game for the Broncos.
Offensively, I think we finally get the Maddux Madsen game. Washington State is going to sell out for the run and do whatever they can to stop Ashton Jeanty. Madsen is going to see a lot of 8-man boxes and I think this week he makes the Cougs pay. I'll go on record, I think Madsen has the first 300 yard passing game of his career this week.
Medical tent
HB Jambres Dubar – We still haven't seen Breezy, although he has not been ruled out for Saturday.
HB Sire Gaines – Gaines suffered a lower body injury after a hipdrop tackle against Portland State. Danielson said Gaines will be a game time decision.
G Roger Carreon – Carreon went down in the Oregon game and left on a cart. He missed Portland State, but no official word on if he will be out.
WR Chris Marshall – Marshall missed the Portland State game after suffering a lower body injury against Oregon. Marshall was a late scratch against the Vikings and could be back this week.
C Mason Randolph – Randolph left late in the Georgia Southern game and it was announced he will miss most, if not the entire season.
Analytic Projections:
With college football data getting better, CFB analytics are getting more and more accurate. Here are what three of the top analytical power ratings are projecting for this game (as well as my own personal power ratings):
Sagarin: Boise State by 6 (39-33)
SP+: Boise State by 4 (34-30)
FPI: Boise State by 6
NC PR: Boise State by 6 (36-30)
Final Prediction:
#25 Boise State 41, Washington State 36
I'll preface this by saying I do not have a good feeling about this one. The best player on the field will be Ashton Jeanty, but the most important player is probably John Mateer. Given what JC French and Dillon Gabriel did to this defense, I'm not confident we can get enough stops to win. With that said… My Brother is a Coug and I can't give him the satisfaction of picking the Cougars to win.
I think Jeanty has a relatively quiet day on the ground, 24 carries, 110 yards and 2 TD, but contributes more in the pass game this week with another 50 yards through the air. Madsen explodes for 300 yards and 2 TD. Camper goes over 100 yards and Prince Strachan has 5 catches.
Defensively, Andrew Simpson has a big day with 10 tackles and keeps Mateer under 100 yards on the ground. The secondary takes their lumps, but is able to make enough plays to get the stops we need. The game concludes with Washington State driving down the field, and on a 4th down in Boise's redzone, Jake Ripp gets the game sealing sack. The Broncos move to 3-1 and climb into the top-20 for the first time since the 2019 season.
No context Mountain West Predictions:
UNLV 30, Fresno State 24
San Diego State 20, Central Michigan 16
New Mexico 40, New Mexico State 23
Air Force 16, Wyoming 3
Last week:
Boise State 66, Portland State 13 (Boise won 56-14)
Washington State 45, San Jose State 21 (Wazzu won 54-52)
Utah State 34, Temple 19 (Temple won 45-29)
Nevada 26, Eastern Washington 17 (Nevada won 49-16)
UTEP 30, Colorado State 24 (Colorado State won 27-17)
North Texas 33, Wyoming 20 (North Texas won 44-17)
Fresno State 51, New Mexico 30 (Fresno State won 38-21)
Northern Iowa 22, Hawai'I 21 (Hawai'I won 36-7)
